Azzahra, Salsabila Putri (2026) PREDIKSI PENJUALAN PRODUK PLASTIK UNTUK PERENCANAAN STOK MENGGUNAKAN METODE SARIMA DAN HOLT-WINTERS PADA TOKO PLASTIK PELANGI. Undergraduate thesis, UPN Veteran Jawa Timur.
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Abstract
Pelangi Plastic Store faces challenges in stock planning due to unpredictable fluctuations in plastic product sales, which means the stock requirement estimation process is still carried out manually and with limited accuracy This condition can lead to both overstock and stockout situations, impacting the store's operational efficiency. This study aims to develop a sales forecasting model using the SARIMA and Holt-Winters methods to support more accurate and efficient stock planning. The data used consists of weekly sales data from five selected products. Model evaluation was conducted using the RMSE metric. The research results indicate that the best method differs for each product, where the SARIMA method outperforms on three products, namely Gelas Olala Slim 22 Oz with an RMSE of 15.8487, Kresek Gading Putih 28 with an RMSE of 8.7601, and Kresek Millennium Putih 24 with an RMSE of 8.9378, while the Holt-Winters method outperforms on Gelas Olala Slim 18 Oz with an RMSE of 13.7528 and Plastik PE Tomat 12×25 with an RMSE of 8.1435. Based on these forecasting results, it is expected that Pelangi Plastic Store can carry out stock planning in a more targeted, data-driven manner, thereby reducing the risk of both overstock and stockout.
| Item Type: | Thesis (Undergraduate) | ||||||||||||
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| Subjects: | T Technology > T Technology (General) T Technology > T Technology (General) > T58.6-58.62 Management Information Systems |
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| Divisions: | Faculty of Computer Science > Departemen of Information Systems | ||||||||||||
| Depositing User: | Unnamed user with email 22082010079@student.upnjatim.ac.id | ||||||||||||
| Date Deposited: | 25 May 2026 08:28 | ||||||||||||
| Last Modified: | 25 May 2026 09:22 | ||||||||||||
| URI: | https://repository.upnjatim.ac.id/id/eprint/52157 |
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