Pratiwi, Nadya Ilma (2026) PERBANDINGAN ARIMA DAN HOLT EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING UNTUK MEMPREDIKSI VOLUME PERMINTAAN WOOD DIVISION PADA PT TJAKRINDO MAS. Undergraduate thesis, UPN Veteran Jawa Timur.
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Abstract
PT Tjakrindo Mas is a manufacturing company with a make-to-order system whose demand volume depends on customer orders. This condition causes demand in the Wood Division to potentially fluctuate, so the company requires a forecasting method to estimate needs in the future period. This study aims to apply and compare the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Holt Exponential Smoothing methods in predicting the demand volume of the Wood Division. The data used is historical demand volume data processed through data cleaning, bimonthly aggregation, logarithmic transformation, and division of training and test data. Accuracy evaluation was carried out using Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Mean Squared Error (MSE), and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). The results showed that the ARIMA method provided better forecasting performance than Holt Exponential Smoothing. The best ARIMA model produced an MAE value of 26,177.90, an MSE of 1,159,058,148.96, and a MAPE of 25.08%. Meanwhile, Holt Exponential Smoothing produced an MAE of 26,900.21, an MSE of 1,177,626,282.12, and a MAPE of 27.45%. The forecasting results are then visualized in a website-based dashboard that displays graphs, historical tables, forecast results, and model evaluations.
| Item Type: | Thesis (Undergraduate) | ||||||||||||
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| Subjects: | T Technology > T Technology (General) > T58.6-58.62 Management Information Systems | ||||||||||||
| Divisions: | Faculty of Computer Science > Departemen of Information Systems | ||||||||||||
| Depositing User: | Nadya Ilma Pratiwi | ||||||||||||
| Date Deposited: | 26 May 2026 01:39 | ||||||||||||
| Last Modified: | 26 May 2026 01:39 | ||||||||||||
| URI: | https://repository.upnjatim.ac.id/id/eprint/52135 |
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