Efek Fluktuasi Harga Pangan Strategis terhadap Inflasi di Provinsi Jawa Timur: Studi Kasus Komoditas Bawang Merah dan Aneka Cabai

Aisy, Lintang Zahra (2026) Efek Fluktuasi Harga Pangan Strategis terhadap Inflasi di Provinsi Jawa Timur: Studi Kasus Komoditas Bawang Merah dan Aneka Cabai. Undergraduate thesis, UPN Veteran Jawa Timur.

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Abstract

Food price fluctuations occur when an imbalance between supply and demand is driven by the nature of agricultural commodities, which are dependent on natural conditions and have a short shelf life. Inappropriate management of food price fluctuations can lead to inflation, caused by continuous price increases over a period, with widespread effects. Several food commodities are considered strategic foods because they play a major role in driving volatile food inflation. Three of the ten strategic foods are horticultural commodities widely produced in East Java Province: shallots, red chilies, and cayenne peppers. This study was conducted to determine the development of shallots, red chilies, and cayenne peppers during 2021–2025 in East Java Province using descriptive analysis. Meanwhile, to determine the effect of these price changes on inflation, a vector autoregression (VAR) analysis was used. The results showed that among the three commodities studied, the prices of red chilies and cayenne peppers experienced sharp fluctuations, while the price of shallots fluctuated more steadily. The VAR analysis revealed that only shallot prices influenced inflation in East Java Province.

Item Type:

Thesis (Undergraduate)

Contributors:

Contribution	Contributors	NIDN/NIDK	Email
Thesis advisor	Wijayati, Prasmita Dian	NIDN0012089202	prasmita.dian.agribis@upnjatim.ac.id
Thesis advisor	Widayanti, Sri	NIDN0006016208	sriwidayanti@upnjatim.ac.id

Subjects:

H Social Sciences > HD Industries. Land use. Labor > HD1401 Agriculture-Economic aspects

Divisions:

Faculty of Agriculture > Departement of Agribusiness

Depositing User:

Lintang Zahra

Date Deposited:

23 Jul 2026 02:37

Last Modified:

23 Jul 2026 04:21

URI:

https://repository.upnjatim.ac.id/id/eprint/57925