Ardiani, Ardia Eva (2026) Analisis Faktor Risiko Stunting di Jawa Timur Menggunakan Model Bayesian Spatio-Temporal Conditional Autoregressive (CAR). Undergraduate thesis, UPN Veteran Jawa Timur.
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Abstract
Stunting remains a chronic nutritional problem and a major challenge in East Java Province, although its prevalence decreased from 19.2% in 2022 to 14.7% in 2024. However, disparities among regencies/cities remain relatively high, indicating the need for spatial and temporal analysis to identify variations in stunting risk across regions. This study aims to analyze the spatio-temporal distribution pattern of stunting, identify significant risk factors, and map priority intervention areas in East Java Province. The method used was the Bayesian Spatio-Temporal Conditional Autoregressive (CAR) model with the Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation (INLA) approach. The data used consisted of stunting cases obtained from the Indonesian Nutritional Status Survey (SSGI) and the Indonesian Health Survey (SKI) for the 2022-2024 period, along with supporting variables from the East Java Provincial Health Office and Statistics Indonesia (BPS). The results showed that the spatio-temporal model was the best model with the smallest WAIC value of 1442.493 compared to the spatial and temporal models. The undernourished children variable (x_3) was the only variable that had a significant positive effect on increasing stunting risk. The Relative Risk (RR) estimation indicated that Jember, Lumajang, Pasuruan, and Probolinggo City consistently had relatively high stunting risks during the observation period. This study demonstrates that the Bayesian Spatio-Temporal CAR-INLA approach can identify stunting risk patterns more comprehensively and can serve as a scientific basis for developing more targeted stunting intervention policies in East Java Province.
| Item Type: | Thesis (Undergraduate) | ||||||||||||
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| Subjects: | H Social Sciences > HA Statistics | ||||||||||||
| Divisions: | Faculty of Computer Science > Departemen of Data Science | ||||||||||||
| Depositing User: | Ardia Eva Ardiani | ||||||||||||
| Date Deposited: | 08 Jul 2026 07:43 | ||||||||||||
| Last Modified: | 08 Jul 2026 07:43 | ||||||||||||
| URI: | https://repository.upnjatim.ac.id/id/eprint/54817 |
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