Analisis Faktor - Faktor yang Mempengaruhi Impor Beras di Indonesia

Alatas, Nazwa Halidah (2026) Analisis Faktor - Faktor yang Mempengaruhi Impor Beras di Indonesia. Undergraduate thesis, UPN Veteran Jawa Timur.

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Abstract

Beras merupakan komoditas pangan strategis yang memiliki peran penting dalam menjaga ketahanan pangan nasional di Indonesia. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk: (1) mengidentifikasi perkembangan produksi beras, konsumsi beras, dan impor beras di Indonesia; (2) menganalisis faktor-faktor yang memengaruhi impor beras di Indonesia; dan (3) menganalisis implikasi kebijakan pemerintah terhadap impor beras di Indonesia. Data yang digunakan merupakan data sekunder periode 2016–2025 yang diperoleh dari Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS) dan instansi terkait lainnya. Metode analisis yang digunakan meliputi analisis forecasting dengan metode Trend Projection, analisis regresi linear berganda, dan analisis deskriptif. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa produksi beras, konsumsi beras, dan impor beras di Indonesia diproyeksikan mengalami peningkatan pada periode 2026–2030. Hasil analisis regresi menunjukkan bahwa produksi beras berpengaruh negatif terhadap impor beras, sedangkan konsumsi beras berpengaruh positif terhadap impor beras di Indonesia. Selain itu, kebijakan pemerintah terkait peningkatan produksi beras, penguatan cadangan pangan, perlindungan lahan pertanian, dan diversifikasi pangan berperan penting dalam menjaga stabilitas pasokan beras serta mengurangi ketergantungan terhadap impor beras. Oleh karena itu, peningkatan produksi beras domestik dan penguatan ketahanan pangan nasional perlu terus dilakukan untuk mendukung kemandirian pangan Indonesia. Kata Kunci: impor beras, produksi beras, konsumsi beras, forecasting, regresi linear berganda. Rice is a strategic food commodity that plays an important role in maintaining national food security in Indonesia. This study aims to: (1) identify the development of rice production, rice consumption, and rice imports in Indonesia; (2) analyze the factors affecting rice imports in Indonesia; and (3) analyze the implications of government policies on rice imports in Indonesia. The study uses secondary data for the period 2016–2025 obtained from Statistics Indonesia (BPS) and other related institutions. The analytical methods employed include Trend Projection forecasting, multiple linear regression, and descriptive analysis. The results indicate that rice production, rice consumption, and rice imports in Indonesia are projected to increase during the period 2026–2030. Regression analysis shows that rice production has a negative effect on rice imports, while rice consumption has a positive effect on rice imports in Indonesia. Furthermore, government policies related to increasing rice production, strengthening food reserves, protecting agricultural land, and promoting food diversification play an important role in maintaining rice supply stability and reducing dependence on rice imports. Therefore, improving domestic rice production and strengthening national food security remain essential to support Indonesia's food self-sufficiency. Keywords: rice imports, rice production, rice consumption, forecasting, multiple linear regression.

Item Type:

Thesis (Undergraduate)

Contributors:

Contribution	Contributors	NIDN/NIDK	Email
Thesis advisor	Soedarto, Teguh	NIDN0720065601	teguh_soedarto@upnjatim.ac.id
Thesis advisor	Rozci, Fatchur	NIDN0607069501	fatchur_rozci.agribis@upnjatim.ac.id

Subjects:

S Agriculture > S Agriculture (General)

Divisions:

Faculty of Agriculture > Departement of Agribusiness

Depositing User:

ms Nazwa Halidah Alatas

Date Deposited:

26 Jun 2026 03:27

Last Modified:

26 Jun 2026 03:41

URI:

https://repository.upnjatim.ac.id/id/eprint/54198