Analisis Hubungan Indeks Harga Produsen Pertanian Dan Indeks Harga Konsumen Pertanian di Indonesia

Sinuhaji, Brenda Putri (2026) Analisis Hubungan Indeks Harga Produsen Pertanian Dan Indeks Harga Konsumen Pertanian di Indonesia. Undergraduate thesis, UPN Veteran Jawa Timur.

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Abstract

The agricultural sector plays a strategic role in Indonesia's economy, yet price fluctuations between producer and consumer levels frequently occur. This study aims to analyze the development of the Agricultural Producer Price Index PPI and Consumer Price Index CPI in Indonesia from 2013 to 2023, and to examine both short-term and long-term relationships and causality directions between them. PPI and CPI agricultural data were obtained from the Central Bureau of Statistics. The analytical methods employed include trend analysis, Augmented Dickey-Fuller ADF stationarity test, Johansen cointegration test, Vector Autoregression VAR, and Granger causality test. The results indicate that the agricultural PPI showed a significant increasing trend during the observation period, while the agricultural CPI exhibited a decreasing trend. The Johansen cointegration test indicates no long-term relationship between PPI and CPI. VAR model estimation shows that in the short term there is no mutual influence between PPI and CPI, either from producer to consumer or vice versa. The Granger causality test also proves there is no bidirectional causality between PPI and CPI. This indicates weak price transmission in Indonesia's agricultural sector, influenced by government intervention through the Highest Retail Price HET, market operations, long distribution chains, and farmers' weak bargaining position

Item Type:

Thesis (Undergraduate)

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