Forecasting Produksi Jagung: Pendekatan Holt-Winters Untuk Analisis Time

Tampubolon, Wenny Maria and Pakpahan, Vera Febrianti (2024) Forecasting Produksi Jagung: Pendekatan Holt-Winters Untuk Analisis Time. Project Report (Praktek Kerja Lapang dan Magang). UPN Veteran Jawa Timur. (Unpublished)

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Abstract

Population growth and climate change have made forecasting corn production a crucial element in supporting food security in Malang City. In this context, this research aims to present a more sophisticated forecasting approach using the Holt-Winters method. The success of increasing food security in Malang City is very dependent on the ability to accurately predict corn production results. The research method used in this study involves in-depth analysis of historical data on corn production in Malang City. The application of the Holt Winters method as a forecasting tool was chosen because of its ability to capture trend patterns, seasonality and other factors that influence future corn production results. These analysis steps include evaluating historical data, selecting forecasting parameters, and validating forecasting results. It is hoped that the results of this research can provide accurate and reliable information to farmers in Malang City. It is hoped that the knowledge gained from this forecasting will improve their understanding of corn farming conditions, enable better planning, and optimize overall agricultural management. In the context of corn harvest effectiveness, more accurate yield estimates provide a basis for more informed decision making, increasing efficiency and reducing risks in agriculture. This research also contributes to the development of the corn farming industry in Malang City by providing a clearer perspective on production trends, crucial factors, and the future of corn farming. With the information resulting from the implementation of the Holt-Winters method, it is hoped that it can make a positive contribution to the welfare of farmers and support food security more effectively at the local level. The suggestions that emerge from the results of this research can also become the basis for better policies and strategies in developing the corn agricultural sector in Malang City.

Item Type:

Monograph (Project Report (Praktek Kerja Lapang dan Magang))

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