SISTEM PERAMALAN HARGA KEDELAI IMPOR MENGGUNAKAN METODE ARIMA (AUTOREGRESSIVE INTEGRATED MOVING AVERAGE) DI KOTA SURABAYA

Septiawan, Muhammad Luki (2025) SISTEM PERAMALAN HARGA KEDELAI IMPOR MENGGUNAKAN METODE ARIMA (AUTOREGRESSIVE INTEGRATED MOVING AVERAGE) DI KOTA SURABAYA. Undergraduate thesis, UPN Veteran Jawa Timur.

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Abstract

The volatility of food commodity prices, including soybeans, has a significant impact on economic stability and community welfare, especially in large cities such as Surabaya, which has high consumption levels. Unexpected price fluctuations can cause uncertainty for businesses, farmers, and consumers. Therefore, the development of an accurate price forecasting system is essential to support better decision-making. This study aims to design and implement a Soybean Price Forecasting System in Surabaya using the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) method. Evaluation results show that this forecasting system has a very high accuracy rate, with a Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) value of 0.98% on the test data. This accuracy indicates that the model effectively captures the basic patterns and trends of soybean prices. Although the model demonstrates strong predictive capabilities for smooth price movements, the forecasting visualization also indicates that the model tends to smooth out extreme price spikes or outliers that occur suddenly in historical data. This forecasting system is expected to provide valuable predictive information for various stakeholders in Surabaya, such as farmers, traders, and local governments, in planning soybean supply, distribution, and pricing strategies. Further development could include the integration of external variables (exogenous regressors) to enhance the model's ability to capture price anomalies.

Item Type:

Thesis (Undergraduate)

Contributors:

Contribution	Contributors	NIDN/NIDK	Email
Thesis advisor	Putra, Agung Brastama	NIDN00241118503	agungbp.si@upnjatim.ac.id
Thesis advisor	Najaf, Abdul Rezha Efrat	NIDN0029099403	rezha.efrat.sifo@upnjatim.ac.id

Subjects:

H Social Sciences > HD Industries. Land use. Labor > HD30.27 Business Forecasting
Q Science > QA Mathematics > QA76 Computer software

Divisions:

Faculty of Computer Science > Departemen of Information Systems

Depositing User:

MR Muhammad Luki Septiawan

Date Deposited:

05 Aug 2025 07:15

Last Modified:

05 Aug 2025 07:15

URI:

https://repository.upnjatim.ac.id/id/eprint/41247