Rahmalia, Mutia Ainur (2026) Analisis Permintaan Pasar dalam Perencanaan Produksi Melon di Smart Screen House Sukoati Farm. Undergraduate thesis, UPN Veteran Jawa Timur.
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Abstract
Melons are a horticultural commodity with steadily increasing demand, yet their production remains volatile—including at Sukoati Farm’s Smart Screen House, which often struggles to meet market demand due to production planning that is not yet based on demand projections. This study aims to analyze the production system, market demand, and partnership patterns; examine the melon supply chain; determine the most accurate demand forecasting method as a basis for production planning; and identify indications of the bullwhip effect in the supply chain. The study employs a descriptive qualitative and quantitative approach, using primary data from interviews, observations, and documentation involving management, the production manager, and the marketing department, supplemented by secondary data from the company and the Central Statistics Agency (BPS). Forecasts were calculated using the moving average method and exponential smoothing with α = 0.1 and α = 0.5, while the bullwhip effect was analyzed using the coefficient of variation. The results show that exponential smoothing with α = 0.5 provides the highest accuracy with a MAPE of 2.095%, making it the most suitable basis for production targets. The results of the bullwhip effect analysis show that production variability is still lower than demand variability, with a value of 0.387, indicating that there is no demand amplification. The main challenge facing Sukoati Farm lies in its limited production capacity to keep up with spikes in demand; therefore, forecasting results need to be integrated into backward planting schedules and updated periodically. Keywords: Melon, Demand forecasting, Production planning, Supply chain, Bullwhip effect
| Item Type: | Thesis (Undergraduate) | ||||||||||||
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| Subjects: | H Social Sciences > HD Industries. Land use. Labor H Social Sciences > HD Industries. Land use. Labor > HD1401 Agriculture-Economic aspects H Social Sciences > HD Industries. Land use. Labor > HD30.27 Business Forecasting H Social Sciences > HD Industries. Land use. Labor > HD38.5 Supply Chain Management H Social Sciences > HD Industries. Land use. Labor > HD9000 Agricultural Industries |
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| Divisions: | Faculty of Agriculture > Departement of Agribusiness | ||||||||||||
| Depositing User: | Mutia Ainur Rahmalia | ||||||||||||
| Date Deposited: | 31 Jul 2026 08:11 | ||||||||||||
| Last Modified: | 31 Jul 2026 08:11 | ||||||||||||
| URI: | https://repository.upnjatim.ac.id/id/eprint/58314 |
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