Sejati, Wahyu Mustiko (2026) The Influence Of Bank Indonesia's Policy Interest Rate, Money Suppyl (M2), And World Oil Prices On Inflation In Indonesia. Undergraduate thesis, UPN Veteran Jawa Timur.
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Abstract
This study aims to analyze the effects of the Bank Indonesia policy interest rate, money supply (M2), and world oil prices on inflation in Indonesia during the period January 2014-December 2025. The study employs monthly secondary data obtained from Bank Indonesia, Statistics Indonesia (BPS), and the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach is used to examine both the short-run and long-run relationships among the variables. The results indicate the existence of a long-run cointegration relationship between the policy interest rate, money supply (M2), world oil prices, and inflation. In the long run, the policy interest rate has no significant effect on inflation. Money supply (M2) has a negative and significant effect on inflation, while world oil prices have a positive and significant effect on inflation. In the short run, world oil prices also significantly affect inflation, whereas the policy interest rate remains insignificant. These findings suggest that world oil prices and money supply play a more dominant role in influencing inflation in Indonesia than the policy interest rate of Bank Indonesia. Keywords: Inflation, Interest Rate, Money Supply, World Oil Price, ARDL
| Item Type: | Thesis (Undergraduate) | ||||||||
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| Subjects: | H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory | ||||||||
| Divisions: | Faculty of Economic and Business > Departement of Economics | ||||||||
| Depositing User: | Wahyu Sejati | ||||||||
| Date Deposited: | 10 Jul 2026 06:23 | ||||||||
| Last Modified: | 10 Jul 2026 08:10 | ||||||||
| URI: | https://repository.upnjatim.ac.id/id/eprint/55120 |
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