Daya Saing dan Faktor Penentu Ekspor Kakao Indonesia di Pasar Internasional

Setiawan, Risqi Firdaus (2026) Daya Saing dan Faktor Penentu Ekspor Kakao Indonesia di Pasar Internasional. Doctoral thesis, UPN Veteran Jawa Timur.

	Text (Cover) 20661030011.-cover.pdf Download (511kB)
	Text (Bab 1) 20661030011.-bab 1.pdf Download (517kB)
	Text (Bab 2) 20661030011.-bab2.pdf Restricted to Repository staff only until 1 March 2029. Download (538kB)
	Text (Bab 3) 20661030011.-bab3.pdf Restricted to Repository staff only until 1 March 2029. Download (234kB)
	Text (Bab 4) 20661030011.-bab4.pdf Restricted to Repository staff only until 1 March 2029. Download (959kB)
	Text (Bab 5) 20661030011.-bab5.pdf Download (192kB)
	Text (Daftar Pustaka) 20661030011.-daftarpustaka.pdf Download (189kB)
	Text (lampiran) 20661030011.-lampiran.pdf Restricted to Repository staff only until 1 March 2029. Download (308kB)

Abstract

Indonesia is the world's main cocoa producing country, but has not been able to fully utilize this potential in increasing export competitiveness in a sustainable manner. This study aims to examine the competitiveness of Indonesian cocoa in the international market through four approaches: (1) analysis of cocoa trade position based on the Trade Specialization Index (ISP); (2) analysis of comparative and competitive advantages through RCA and ECI as well as assessment of the dynamics of export product positions through Export Product Dynamic (EPD); (3) the competitiveness of Indonesian cocoa is also analyzed structurally through the Porter Diamond Model; and (4) identification of export determinants with the Error Correction Model (ECM) approach. (5) to prepare strategic policy recommendations to encourage Indonesian cocoa exports in the International Market. This study uses a quantitative approach with descriptive analysis methods and econometrics based on secondary data. The data used includes time series and panel data for the period 2000–2022 sourced from FAOSTAT, UN Comtrade, the World Bank, the International Cocoa Organization (ICCO), and the Central Statistics Agency (BPS). The competitiveness analysis was carried out through the calculation of the Trade Specialization Index (ISP), Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA), and Export Competitiveness Index (ECI) to measure the trade position, comparative advantage, and competitiveness of Indonesian cocoa. The dynamics of export positions are analyzed using Export Product Dynamics (EPD) for the main destination country. Furthermore, the structural analysis of competitiveness was carried out using the expanded Porter Diamond Model approach by including the role of government and opportunity factors as active elements. To identify the determinants of cocoa exports, the Error Correction Model (ECM) was used, which began with a stationarity test, a cointegration test, and an estimate of the short-term and long-term relationship between relevant economic variables. The results of the RCA analysis show that Indonesian cocoa has consistently high comparative advantage over the period 2000-2022, with an RCA value above one each year. This indicates that Indonesia is relatively superior in cocoa exports compared to the world average. Meanwhile, the average value of Indonesia's cocoa ECI over the period was 1.04, indicating a competitive advantage, although lower than Vietnam's 1.15 and Malaysia's 1.08. Indonesia's ECI value has fluctuated significantly, with a low of 0.63 in 2011 and a high of 1.77 in 2002, indicating instability in maintaining a consistent competitive position. EPD analysis shows that Indonesia's cocoa competitiveness position against the four main destination countries Malaysia, China, India, and the Philippines is in the Rising Star quadrant. This means that there is positive growth both in terms of Indonesian exports and in terms of global market demand growth in destination countries. This finding shows great potential for Indonesia to strengthen its cocoa export market penetration as long as it can maintain export growth trends and respond to demand dynamics in destination markets. In the framework of the Porter Diamond Model, it was found that the main strength of Indonesia's cocoa competitiveness lies in the condition of resource factors, namely the availability of land and labor. Domestic demand is also showing supportive growth. However, weaknesses still exist in infrastructure, technological innovation, processing industries that have not developed optimally, and limited support for integrated export policies. This research adds novelty by making the role of government and the opportunity factor as two active components in the diamond system, which enriches competitiveness modeling. The results of the ECM analysis show that in the long term, the variables of domestic production, the rupiah exchange rate, and the GDP of export destination countries (Malaysia, India, China) have a significant effect on the volume of Indonesian cocoa exports. In the short term, world prices and domestic consumption are the most responsive factors to export fluctuations. The coefficient of correction (ECT) is significant and negative, indicating the existence of an adjustment mechanism towards long-term equilibrium in the event of a temporary deviation. With a comprehensive approach, this study produced several strategic recommendations. Among them are the need to encourage the downstreaming of the cocoa industry, increase the capacity of cocoa farmers and business actors, integrate export policies with the Porter Diamond Model approach, and apply ECM estimation results to design short- and long-term export strategies. This research also makes practical and theoretical contributions in supporting evidence-based policy making to strengthen the competitiveness of Indonesian cocoa in the international market.

Item Type:

Thesis (Doctoral)

Contributors:

Contribution	Contributors	NIDN/NIDK	Email
Thesis advisor	Soedarto, Teguh	NIDN0720065601	teguh_soedarto@upnjatim.ac.id
Thesis advisor	Hendrarini, Hamidah	NIDN0727126002	hamidah_h@upnjatim.ac.id
Thesis advisor	Mubarokah, Mubarokah	NIDN0714116201	mubarokah@upnjatim.ac.id