PREDIKSI HARGA BAWANG MERAH DI KOTA PROBOLINGGO MENGGUNAKAN LONG SHORT TERM MEMORY-CATBOOST DENGAN OPTUNA OPTIMIZATION

Salsabilah, Rafani Bardatus (2025) PREDIKSI HARGA BAWANG MERAH DI KOTA PROBOLINGGO MENGGUNAKAN LONG SHORT TERM MEMORY-CATBOOST DENGAN OPTUNA OPTIMIZATION. Undergraduate thesis, UPN Veteran Jawa Timur.

	Text cover.pdf Download (1MB)
	Text (Bab 1) bab 1.pdf Download (295kB)
	Text (Bab 2) bab 2.pdf Restricted to Repository staff only until 5 December 2027. Download (646kB)
	Text (Bab 3) bab 3.pdf Restricted to Repository staff only until 5 December 2027. Download (1MB)
	Text (Bab 4) ba 4.pdf Restricted to Repository staff only until 5 December 2027. Download (5MB)
	Text (Bab 5) bab 5.pdf Download (268kB)
	Text (Daftar Pustaka) daftar pustaka.pdf Download (216kB)
	Text (Lampiran) lampiran.pdf Restricted to Repository staff only Download (264kB)

Abstract

Indonesia has abundant natural resources, one of which lies in the agricultural sector, particularly the horticultural subsector. Shallots are a high-value horticultural commodity that often experience price fluctuations, including in Probolinggo City, which is one of the largest shallot production centers in East Java. This study aims to develop a shallot price prediction model based on machine learning by combining the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) architecture, which excels in processing numerical data, and CatBoost, which effectively handles categorical data. Both models were optimized using Optuna Optimization to improve predictive performance. The dataset includes variables such as time, price, production, rainfall, inflation, consumer price index (CPI), and season, covering the period from January 2020 to December 2024. The results show that the LSTM-CatBoost model optimized with Optuna achieved an MAE of 0.017381, RMSE of 0.029236, MAPE of 6%, and R² of 0.956387. This indicates that the optimized LSTM-CatBoost model can effectively capture price fluctuation patterns with high accuracy and has the potential to serve as an analytical tool for local government agencies in supporting shallot price stabilization policies in Probolinggo City.

Item Type:

Thesis (Undergraduate)

Contributors:

Contribution	Contributors	NIDN/NIDK	Email
Thesis advisor	Via, Yisti Vita	NIDN0025048602	yistivia.if@upnjatim.ac.id
Thesis advisor	Puspaningrum, Eva Yulia	NIDN0005078908	evapuspaningrum.if@upnjatim.ac.id

Subjects:

T Technology > T Technology (General)

Divisions:

Faculty of Computer Science > Departemen of Informatics

Depositing User:

RAFANI BARDATUS SALSABILAH

Date Deposited:

05 Dec 2025 08:47

Last Modified:

05 Dec 2025 09:00

URI:

https://repository.upnjatim.ac.id/id/eprint/48083