Nugraha, Rizky Ilman (2024) Analisis Pola Penggunaan Energi Listrik untuk Peramalan Permintaan menggunakan Metode Time Series. Project Report (Praktek Kerja Lapang). Universitas Pembangunan Nasional "Veteran" Jawa Timur. (Unpublished)
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Abstract
In the modern era, the demand for electrical energy has increased significantly alongside population growth, industrial development, and rising living standards. Fluctuations in electricity usage patterns pose challenges for energy providers to ensure a stable and sufficient supply. To address these challenges, this study aims to analyze electricity consumption patterns in Indonesia and develop demand forecasting models using time series methods, specifically ARIMA and Exponential Smoothing. The data used in this research includes per capita electricity consumption from 1970 to 2021. The analysis process involves dividing the data into training and testing sets, followed by applying ARIMA and Exponential Smoothing models to predict future electricity demand. The results indicate that both models provide fairly accurate forecasts. The ARIMA model demonstrates better performance in terms of mean absolute error (MAE) and root mean square error (RMSE), while Exponential Smoothing also delivers satisfactory results with smaller error margins in some cases. Additionally, integrating the forecasting results into an interactive dashboard enables users to easily access and understand the predictions. This dashboard is equipped with data visualizations that facilitate interpretation of the forecasting outcomes. It is hoped that this research will contribute to more efficient and sustainable energy management in Indonesia, assisting stakeholders in making strategic decisions regarding electricity distribution and consumption in the future.
| Item Type: | Monograph (Project Report (Praktek Kerja Lapang)) | ||||||||
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| Subjects: | T Technology > T Technology (General) | ||||||||
| Divisions: | Faculty of Computer Science > Departemen of Information Systems | ||||||||
| Depositing User: | Rizky Ilman Nugraha | ||||||||
| Date Deposited: | 20 Jun 2025 03:20 | ||||||||
| Last Modified: | 20 Jun 2025 03:20 | ||||||||
| URI: | https://repository.upnjatim.ac.id/id/eprint/38674 |
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