Implementasi Holt-Winters Dalam Rancang Bangun Sistem Prediksi Penjualan Untuk Manajemen Persediaan Barang Berdasarkan Data Historis (Studi Kasus: Depo Ardiana)

Maharani, Ardiana Deka (2024) Implementasi Holt-Winters Dalam Rancang Bangun Sistem Prediksi Penjualan Untuk Manajemen Persediaan Barang Berdasarkan Data Historis (Studi Kasus: Depo Ardiana). Undergraduate thesis, UPN Veteran Jawa Timur.

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Abstract

Efficient inventory management is very important in ensuring smooth business operations, especially in meeting customer demand and maintaining a balance between inventory and market needs. Depo Ardiana, a business that provides bottled drinking water and gas cylinders, often faces the challenge of supply uncertainty due to fluctuations in demand. This research aims to develop a sales prediction system using the Holt-Winters method. This method utilizes a triple exponential smoothing approach to model trends, seasonal patterns, and random variations in historical data, with the goal of improving prediction accuracy and response to market changes. This prediction system is designed to help Depo Ardiana manage inventory more efficiently and on time. The research results show that the Holt-Winters method is able to produce sales predictions with a high level of accuracy, indicated by the lowest Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) value of 0.29. This low RMSE value indicates better model performance in predicting sales. Thus, the application of the Holt-Winters method has proven to be effective in optimizing inventory management, reducing the risk of excess or shortage of inventory, and increasing supply chain reliability.

Item Type:

Thesis (Undergraduate)

Contributors:

Contribution	Contributors	NIDN/NIDK	Email
Thesis advisor	Sari, Anggraini Puspita	NIDN0716088605	anggraini.puspita.if@upnjatim.ac.id
Thesis advisor	Putra, Chrystia Aji	NIDN0008108605	ajiputra@upnjatim.ac.id

Subjects:

T Technology > T Technology (General)

Divisions:

Faculty of Computer Science > Departemen of Informatics

Depositing User:

Ardiana Deka Maharani

Date Deposited:

20 Sep 2024 03:35

Last Modified:

20 Sep 2024 03:35

URI:

https://repository.upnjatim.ac.id/id/eprint/29104