Model Peramalan Produksi Kedelai Indonesia

Priranti, Yessy Risma (2026) Model Peramalan Produksi Kedelai Indonesia. Undergraduate thesis, UPN Veteran Jawa Timur.

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Abstract

Soybean is one of Indonesia’s strategic food commodities that plays an important role in supporting food security and the plant-based protein food industry. However, domestic soybean production has not been able to meet national demand, resulting in continued dependence on imports. This study aims to identify the development of soybean production in Indonesia, forecast soybean production for the 2025–2030 period, and analyze the factors affecting soybean production in Indonesia. This study uses a quantitative approach with secondary data for the 2004–2024 period obtained from Statistics Indonesia (BPS), the Directorate General of Food Crops, and the Center for Agricultural Data and Information of the Ministry of Agriculture. The methods used are the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) method for forecasting and multiple linear regression to analyze the factors affecting soybean production. The results show that soybean production in Indonesia fluctuated with a declining trend during the 2004–2024 period. The ARIMA(0,1,0) model was selected as the best forecasting model and indicates that soybean production is projected to decline from 205,545 tons in 2025 to 82,227 tons in 2030. The regression results show that harvested area and soybean prices have a positive and significant effect on soybean production in Indonesia, while soybean imports do not have a significant effect on soybean production.

Item Type:

Thesis (Undergraduate)

Contributors:

Contribution	Contributors	NIDN/NIDK	Email
Thesis advisor	Roidah, Ida Syamsu	NIDN0724068602	ida.syamsu.agribis@upnjatim.ac.id
Thesis advisor	Setiawan, Risqi Firdaus	NIDN0007069601	risqi.f.agribis@upnjatim.ac.id

Subjects:

S Agriculture > S Agriculture (General)

Divisions:

Faculty of Agriculture > Departement of Agribusiness

Depositing User:

Yessy Risma Priranti

Date Deposited:

22 Oct 2026 06:55

Last Modified:

22 Oct 2026 07:53

URI:

https://repository.upnjatim.ac.id/id/eprint/61066