Saputra, Ivan Aji (2025) Peramalan Pendapatan Sertifikasi dan Pelatihan Untuk Mendukung Perencanaan Keuangan PPSDM Migas Tahun 2025. Project Report (Praktek Kerja Lapang dan Magang). Teknik dan Sains UPN Veteran Jawa Timur. (Unpublished)
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Abstract
Revenue targets at the Center for Oil and Gas Human Resources Development (PPSDM Migas) Cepu increase every year, so the Program, Evaluation, and Cooperation Department needs a reliable basis for setting monthly targets and supporting financial planning. This study forecasts certification and training revenue using the Moving Average (MA), Single Exponential Smoothing (SES), and Double Exponential Smoothing (DES) methods. The data are monthly revenue from January to November 2025 (11 periods), processed with Minitab. Forecast accuracy is evaluated using the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD), and Mean Squared Deviation (MSD/MSE). The 2-month MA produced a MAPE of 82%, MAD of 2,199, and MSD of 7,851,572. The 3-month MA produced a MAPE of 32%, MAD of 1,926, and MSD of 6,657,152. SES (α = 0.1) produced a MAPE of 67%, MAD of 2,045, and MSD of 6,982,502. DES (α = 0.116085, γ = 0.560634) produced a MAPE of 85%, MAD of 2,329, and MSD of 8,444,893. The 3-month MA had the lowest error on all three measures and was selected as the best method. It forecasts revenue of approximately IDR 5.521 billion per month for December 2025 through February 2026, with a 95% prediction interval of IDR 464 million to IDR 10.578 billion. These results can support monthly target setting, resource allocation, and operational planning at PPSDM Migas Cepu.
| Item Type: | Monograph (Project Report (Praktek Kerja Lapang dan Magang)) | ||||||||
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| Subjects: | T Technology > TX Home economics | ||||||||
| Divisions: | Faculty of Engineering > Departement of Industrial Engineering | ||||||||
| Depositing User: | Ivan Saputra | ||||||||
| Date Deposited: | 13 Oct 2026 04:36 | ||||||||
| Last Modified: | 13 Oct 2026 04:36 | ||||||||
| URI: | https://repository.upnjatim.ac.id/id/eprint/60746 |
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