Sirli, Jeannica Salbillah Putri (2026) Analisis Reduksi Bullwhip Effect pada Rantai Pasok Menggunakan Metode Collaborative Planning, Forecasting, and Replenishment (CPFR) di UD Misasun Megah. Undergraduate thesis, UNIVERSITAS PEMBANGUNAN NASIONAL "VETERAN" JAWA TIMUR.
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Abstract
Order fluctuations in the UD Misasun Megah supply chain are driven by order batching, subjective forecasting, and price volatility, all of which potentially exacerbate the bullwhip effect. This study aims to implement the Collaborative Planning, Forecasting, and Replenishment (CPFR) method to mitigate the bullwhip effect by enhancing collaboration and information integration among supply chain stakeholders. The study utilizes 26 months of historical data, spanning June 2024 to May 2026. CPFR implementation involved refining collaboration workflows, forecasting demand using Simple Seasonal and Winters’ Additive methods, and managing inventory through safety stock and reorder point (ROP) strategies. Results indicate that post-implementation collaboration workflows became more integrated through the mutual exchange of sales and inventory data. Forecasting accuracy improved, evidenced by a MAPE value below 5%, classified as excellent. This improvement contributed to a reduction in the overall bullwhip effect (BE4) from 1.045 to 0.948, while the manufacturing-level bullwhip effect dropped from 1.195 to 0.954; both metrics fell below 1.0 following CPFR implementation. Refined inventory replenishment policies also reduced stockout and overstock incidents: at the distributor level, occurrences dropped from 29 and 18 to 10 and 7, respectively, while at the manufacturing level, they fell from 38 and 22 to 13 and 9. These findings demonstrate that CPFR implementation enhances information integration, improves forecasting accuracy, mitigates the bullwhip effect, and optimizes inventory control within the UD Misasun Megah supply chain.
| Item Type: | Thesis (Undergraduate) | ||||||||
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| Subjects: | T Technology > T Technology (General) T Technology > T Technology (General) > T55.4-60.8 Industrial engineering. Management engineering |
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| Divisions: | Faculty of Engineering > Departement of Industrial Engineering | ||||||||
| Depositing User: | Jeannica Salbillah Putri Sirli | ||||||||
| Date Deposited: | 13 Oct 2026 04:50 | ||||||||
| Last Modified: | 14 Oct 2026 02:26 | ||||||||
| URI: | https://repository.upnjatim.ac.id/id/eprint/60680 |
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