Mahardika, Serly Bella (2026) DAMPAK KEBIJAKAN TARIF IMPOR GULA TERHADAP KESEJAHTERAAN MASYARAKAT INDONESIA. Undergraduate thesis, UPN Veteran Jawa Timur.
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Abstract
This study aims to analyze trends in sugar production, consumption, and imports in Indonesia; examine the factors influencing sugar supply and demand; and assess the impact of import tariff policies on the welfare of the Indonesian population. A quantitative approach was employed using secondary time-series data spanning 2010–2024. The analysis utilized the Least Squares Method for trend analysis, a simultaneous equation model estimated via Two-Stage Least Squares (2SLS), and a welfare impact analysis using the TWEN method. The results indicate that while Indonesian sugar production has fluctuated, consumption and imports have generally trended upward. 2SLS estimation results reveal that population and lagged demand significantly influence sugar demand, whereas domestic sugar prices, income, and import prices do not. Regarding the supply equation, domestic sugar prices, sugar production, and import volumes have significant effects, while sugarcane plantation area does not. Simulation results show that a reduction in import tariffs increases consumer surplus but decreases producer surplus and government revenue; conversely, an increase in import tariffs raises producer surplus and government revenue but reduces consumer surplus.
| Item Type: | Thesis (Undergraduate) | ||||||||||||
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| Subjects: | S Agriculture > SD Forestry | ||||||||||||
| Divisions: | Faculty of Agriculture > Departement of Agribusiness | ||||||||||||
| Depositing User: | Serly Bella Mahardika | ||||||||||||
| Date Deposited: | 08 Sep 2026 07:31 | ||||||||||||
| Last Modified: | 08 Sep 2026 07:31 | ||||||||||||
| URI: | https://repository.upnjatim.ac.id/id/eprint/60112 |
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