Arif, Farah Yusnaida (2026) Analisis Faktor - Faktor yang Memengaruhi Kemiskinan pada Provinsi dengan Penduduk Miskin Terbanyak di Pulau Jawa Menggunakan Spatial Durbin Model dan Casetti Expansion. Undergraduate thesis, UPN Veteran Jawa Timur.
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Abstract
Poverty remains one of the major challenges to economic development on Java Island. Despite being Indonesia's primary economic growth center, substantial disparities in poverty levels persist across regencies and municipalities in East Java, Central Java, and West Java Provinces. These disparities indicate that poverty is influenced not only by the characteristics of individual regions but also by spatial interactions among neighboring areas. Therefore, this study aims to analyze the socioeconomic factors affecting poverty levels on Java Island and to compare the performance of the standard SDM with the Casetti Expansion-based SDM. The study employed cross-sectional secondary data for 2024 obtained from Statistics Indonesia, covering 100 regencies and municipalities in East Java, Central Java, and West Java. The analysis utilized the SDM to model the effects of socioeconomic factors while accounting for spatial interactions and extended it using the Casetti Expansion approach, which allows regression coefficients to vary geographically. This study contributes by providing a comparative evaluation of the standard SDM and the Casetti Expansion-based SDM for poverty analysis at the regency/municipality level on Java Island, an approach that has received limited attention in previous studies in Indonesia. The results revealed significant positive spatial autocorrelation in poverty levels. In the Casetti Expansion-based SDM, the baseline coefficient of the Human Development Index was -0.595, indicating a negative relationship with poverty. Furthermore, the Casetti Expansion-based SDM demonstrated better performance than the standard SDM, with an AIC value of 456.12 compared with 459.60 and a Pseudo R² value of 0.6973 compared with 0.6322
| Item Type: | Thesis (Undergraduate) | ||||||||||||
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| Subjects: | H Social Sciences > HA Statistics | ||||||||||||
| Divisions: | Faculty of Computer Science > Departemen of Data Science | ||||||||||||
| Depositing User: | Farah Yusnaida Arif | ||||||||||||
| Date Deposited: | 07 Sep 2026 02:17 | ||||||||||||
| Last Modified: | 07 Sep 2026 02:17 | ||||||||||||
| URI: | https://repository.upnjatim.ac.id/id/eprint/59955 |
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