Prediksi Harga Grosir Beras Nasional Menggunakan Model SARIMA dan Holt-Winters Additive

Saputra, Agung Andhika (2026) Prediksi Harga Grosir Beras Nasional Menggunakan Model SARIMA dan Holt-Winters Additive. Undergraduate thesis, UPN Veteran Jawa Timur.

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Abstract

Rice is a strategic food commodity whose price stability strongly affects national social and economic conditions, making accurate price forecasting essential for food planning and policy-making. This study aimed to forecast the national wholesale rice price and compare the performance of two time-series forecasting models, namely Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) and Holt-Winters Additive. The data used were secondary national wholesale rice price data obtained from the Strategic Food Price Information Center (PIHPS) of Bank Indonesia for the period January 2018 to December 2025. The original daily data were aggregated into 418 weekly observations and divided into training and testing sets using an 80:20 ratio. Both models were evaluated using static forecast and rolling forecast schemes with MAE, RMSE, and MAPE metrics. The results showed that in static forecasting, SARIMA(1,1,2)(1,0,1)[52] achieved a MAPE of 1.6645%, which was categorized as highly accurate, while Holt-Winters Additive obtained a MAPE of 10.1564%. The application of damped trend reduced the Holt Winters MAPE to 1.6184%. In rolling forecasting, SARIMA achieved a MAPE of 0.1236%, slightly better than Holt-Winters Additive at 0.1287%. Therefore, SARIMA was selected as the best model and used to forecast the 2026 national wholesale rice price, with validated first-semester projections ranging from IDR 14,925.97 to IDR 15,069.91 per kilogram. The forecasting results were visualized through an interactive Flask-based dashboard.

Item Type:

Thesis (Undergraduate)

Contributors:

Contribution	Contributors	NIDN/NIDK	Email
Thesis advisor	Agussalim, Agussalim	NIDN0911088501	agussalim.si@upnjatim.ac.id
Thesis advisor	Wati, Seftin Fitri Ana	NIDN0020039104	seftin.fitri.si@upnjatim.ac.id

Subjects:

T Technology > T Technology (General) > T58.6-58.62 Management Information Systems

Divisions:

Faculty of Computer Science > Departemen of Information Systems

Depositing User:

Agung Andhika Saputra

Date Deposited:

21 Jul 2026 02:55

Last Modified:

21 Jul 2026 06:14

URI:

https://repository.upnjatim.ac.id/id/eprint/56347