Sugiarti, Nova Putri Dwi (2026) Analisis Faktor yang Mempengaruhi Jumlah Penduduk Miskin di Jawa Timur Tahun 2024 Melalui Metode Geographically Weighted Negative Binomial Regression (GWNBR). Undergraduate thesis, UPN Veteran Jawa Timur.
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Abstract
Poverty in East Java Province remains a significant issue, with significant regional differences. As of March 2024, the poverty rate was recorded at 9.79%, with approximately 3.98 million people living in poverty. Regional disparities are stark, with Sampang Regency recording the highest poverty rate at 20.83%, while Surabaya City had a much lower rate at 3.96%. This situation indicates that economic growth has not been fully felt equally by the community. Differences in socioeconomic conditions between regencies and cities indicate spatial variations that require a location-based modeling approach. The focus of this research is to create a model that can analyze the number of poor people while flexibly considering regional variations. This study applies the Geographically Weighted Negative Binomial Regression (GWNBR) method with several weighting functions, namely adaptive and fixed kernels. The variables used include the Labor Force Participation Rate (TPT), Labor Force Participation Rate (TPAK), population density, RLS, UHH, and economic growth in 2024. The evaluation results show that the best model is obtained from GWNBR with an adaptive Gaussian weight function, with an AIC value of 299.0025 and a deviance of 38958.98. The model successfully provides parameter estimates that vary in each region, so it is more accurate in describing variations in the number of poor people and can be used as a basis for formulating more appropriate policies.
| Item Type: | Thesis (Undergraduate) | ||||||||||||
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| Subjects: | H Social Sciences > HA Statistics | ||||||||||||
| Divisions: | Faculty of Computer Science > Departemen of Data Science | ||||||||||||
| Depositing User: | Nova Putri Dwi Sugiarti | ||||||||||||
| Date Deposited: | 09 Jul 2026 03:37 | ||||||||||||
| Last Modified: | 09 Jul 2026 03:37 | ||||||||||||
| URI: | https://repository.upnjatim.ac.id/id/eprint/54584 |
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