Rachmansyah, Aditya (2026) ANALISIS PERAMALAN KEBUTUHAN DAN SAFETY STOCK MATERIAL KAWAT LAS 3.2MM DALAM PEMBUATAN KAPAL PADA PT. PAL INDONESIA MENGGUNAKAN METODE TIME SERIES. Project Report (Praktek Kerja Lapang dan Magang). UNIVERSITAS PEMBANGUNAN NASIONAL "VETERAN" JAWA TIMUR.
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Abstract
This study aims to analyze demand forecasting and determine the safety stock of 3.2 mm welding electrode material in shipbuilding processes at PT PAL Indonesia using the time series method. The main problem faced by the company is the fluctuation in consumable material demand, which can lead to overstock or stockout conditions and affect the continuity of ship production processes. The data used in this study consisted of historical usage data of welding electrodes from October 2024 to September 2025. The forecasting methods applied were Simple Moving Average (SMA), Weighted Moving Average (WMA), and Single Exponential Smoothing (SES). Forecasting accuracy was measured using Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD), Mean Squared Error (MSE), and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). The results showed that the Simple Moving Average (SMA) method was the best forecasting method, with a MAD value of 54.07, MSE of 6,366.05, and MAPE of 22.24%, producing a forecast demand of 277 kg for the next period. Based on the forecasting results, the calculated safety stock was 162 kg and the reorder point (ROP) was 993 kg with a service level of 90%. The implementation of the time series method combined with safety stock and reorder point calculations proved to help the company maintain material availability, reduce the risk of stock shortages, and improve inventory control efficiency in the ship production process.
| Item Type: | Monograph (Project Report (Praktek Kerja Lapang dan Magang)) | ||||||||
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| Subjects: | T Technology > T Technology (General) T Technology > T Technology (General) > T55.4-60.8 Industrial engineering. Management engineering T Technology > TH Building construction |
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| Divisions: | Faculty of Engineering > Departement of Industrial Engineering | ||||||||
| Depositing User: | Aditya Aditya Rachmansyah | ||||||||
| Date Deposited: | 29 May 2026 03:56 | ||||||||
| Last Modified: | 29 May 2026 03:56 | ||||||||
| URI: | https://repository.upnjatim.ac.id/id/eprint/52930 |
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