Maulana, Mohamad Ibnu Fajar (2026) MODELING THE OPEN UNEMPLOYMENT RATE IN WEST JAVA 2019-2024 USING A PANEL DATA REGRESSION APPROACH. Undergraduate thesis, UPN Veteran Jawa Timur.
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Abstract
The Open Unemployment Rate (OUR) is one of the primary indicators of labor market conditions, reflecting the balance between labor supply and demand within a region. Differences in economic characteristics across regencies and cities in West Java Province, along with year-to-year dynamics, result in heterogeneous variations in OUR. Based on data from Statistics Indonesia (BPS) for the 2019–2024 period, the OUR across 27 regencies and cities exhibits fluctuating patterns with consistent interregional differences, indicating structural heterogeneity in its formation. Therefore, a modeling approach capable of simultaneously accommodating cross-sectional and temporal variations is required to generate representative estimates. This study applies panel data regression within a model selection framework comparing the Common Effect Model (CEM), Fixed Effect Model (FEM), and Random Effect Model (REM). The testing results indicate that the FEM provides the most appropriate specification. Parameter estimation is conducted using the Least Squares Dummy Variable (LSDV) approach under both One-Way and Two-Way Fixed Effect schemes, with backward elimination employed to retain statistically significant parameters. The evaluation results show that the Two-Way Fixed Effect approach achieves the best performance, with an Adjusted R-squared of 0.9241 and an AIC of 356.60, indicating a strong estimation capability in approximating actual values. These findings demonstrate that the panel data regression model provides robust and representative estimates in analyzing the determinants of the Open Unemployment Rate in West Java Province.
| Item Type: | Thesis (Undergraduate) | ||||||||||||
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| Subjects: | H Social Sciences > HA Statistics H Social Sciences > HC Economics Q Science > QA Mathematics > QA76.6 Computer Programming |
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| Divisions: | Faculty of Computer Science > Departemen of Data Science | ||||||||||||
| Depositing User: | Mohamad Ibnu Fajar Maulana | ||||||||||||
| Date Deposited: | 10 Mar 2026 02:45 | ||||||||||||
| Last Modified: | 10 Mar 2026 02:45 | ||||||||||||
| URI: | https://repository.upnjatim.ac.id/id/eprint/50304 |
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