Analisi Perkembangan Produksi Kedelai di Jawa Timur

Aldila, Fitri Yulinar (2025) Analisi Perkembangan Produksi Kedelai di Jawa Timur. Undergraduate thesis, UPN Veteran Jawa Timur.

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Abstract

The food crisis in Indonesia has become increasingly urgent due to the imbalance between rapid population growth and the slow increase in food production. East Java Province, one of Indonesia’s major soybean production centers, has exhibited fluctuating and generally declining soybean production trends in recent years, driven by climate variability, land-use conversion, and low economic incentives for farmers. This study aims to analyze the development and forecast soybean production in East Java using the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) approach, as well as to examine the influencing factors through multiple linear regression analysis. Secondary annual time-series data on soybean production for the period 2000–2022 were obtained from the Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS) and the Ministry of Agriculture of the Republic of Indonesia. The analysis was conducted in three stages: descriptive analysis to illustrate historical production trends, Box-Jenkins ARIMA modeling for forecasting the 2025–2035 period, and multiple linear regression to identify the effects of harvested area, productivity, and price on soybean production. The results reveal that soybean production in East Java has fluctuated with a declining trend after 2018. The selected ARIMA model effectively captures historical patterns and projects a slowing, potentially declining production trend through 2035 in the absence of significant policy interventions. Multiple regression analysis indicates that harvested area and productivity have significant positive effects on soybean production, whereas price does not exert a significant influence. The study concludes that increasing soybean production in East Java depends more heavily on the availability of productive land and improved productivity than on price factors. Therefore, strategies to boost soybean production should prioritize the expansion and protection of productive farmland, adoption of modern agricultural technologies, development of high-yielding varieties, and strategic management of imports.

Item Type:

Thesis (Undergraduate)

Contributors:

Contribution	Contributors	NIDN/NIDK	Email
Thesis advisor	Rizkiyah, Noor	NIDN1120077401	noor.rizkiyah.agribis@upnjatim.ac.id
Thesis advisor	Rozci, Fatchur	NIDN0607069501	fatchur_rozci.agribisnis@upnjatim.ac.id

Subjects:

S Agriculture > S Agriculture (General)

Divisions:

Faculty of Agriculture > Departement of Agribusiness

Depositing User:

Fitri Yulinar Aldila

Date Deposited:

05 Dec 2025 07:05

Last Modified:

05 Dec 2025 07:05

URI:

https://repository.upnjatim.ac.id/id/eprint/48050