Prediksi Harga Komoditas Cabai di Jawa Timur Menggunakan Arimax dengan Variasi Kalender

Salsabila, Nada (2025) Prediksi Harga Komoditas Cabai di Jawa Timur Menggunakan Arimax dengan Variasi Kalender. Undergraduate thesis, UPN Veteran Jawa Timur.

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Abstract

The high consumption of chili in East Java makes this commodity one of the most important needs for society. However, data show that chili prices, particularly curly chili and red chili, often experience fluctuations. This price instability affects peoples purchasing power and creates difficulties for the government in formulating timely distribution strategies and supply control. Therefore, this study aims to forecast the prices of curly chili and red chili in East Java to reduce future price volatility. The forecasting approach applied is the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average with Exogenous Variables (ARIMAX), adjusted with calendar variations of religious holidays, namely Eid al-Adha and Christmas, as exogenous variables. The novelty of this study lies in the implementation of the ARIMAX method with calendar effects during religious holidays, which has rarely been explored in similar research in Indonesia, particularly in the context of predicting chili prices. The analysis results indicate that ARIMAX provides better performance compared to the standalone ARIMA model. For curly chili, the ARIMAX(3,1,2) model was obtained with a MAPE value of 12.46%, while for red chili, the ARIMAX(3,1,5) model achieved a MAPE of 7.73%. Thus, the addition of exogenous variables in the form of Eid al-Adha and Christmas dummies improves forecasting accuracy. Furthermore, this study also developed a user-friendly interface to facilitate analysis, modeling, and prediction of chili prices in East Java.

Item Type:

Thesis (Undergraduate)

Contributors:

Contribution	Contributors	NIDN/NIDK	Email
Thesis advisor	Damaliana, Aviolla Terza	NIDN0002089402	aviolla.terza.sada@upnjatim.ac.id
Thesis advisor	Saputra, Wahyu Syaifullah Jauharis	NIDN0725088601	wahyu.s.j.saputra.if@upnjatim.ac.id

Subjects:

Q Science > QA Mathematics > QA76.6 Computer Programming

Divisions:

Faculty of Computer Science > Departemen of Data Science

Depositing User:

Nada Salsabila

Date Deposited:

19 Sep 2025 03:16

Last Modified:

19 Sep 2025 03:16

URI:

https://repository.upnjatim.ac.id/id/eprint/43794