Hafsari, Diyana Mila (2025) Hubungan Kausalitas antara Pengeluaran Pemerintah Terhadap Jumlah Penduduk Miskin di Provinsi Banten. Undergraduate thesis, UPN Veteran Jawa Timur.
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Abstract
The number of impoverished residents is an important indicator in assessing community welfare and regional development performance. This study aims to investigate the causal relationship between government expenditure and the number of impoverished residents in Banten Province during the period of 2009–2023. The data used is secondary data in the form of time series and is analyzed using the Vector Autoregression (VAR) method, including stationarity tests, Johansen cointegration, Granger causality, Impulse Response Function (IRF), and Forecast Error Variance Decomposition (FEVD). The results show a short-term causal relationship between government expenditure and the number of impoverished residents; however, no long-term relationship was found between the two. The contribution of government expenditure to changes in poverty levels is also relatively low. Conversely, the number of impoverished residents has a greater impact on government expenditure. This reflects that expenditure policies have not been effective enough in sustainably reducing the number of impoverished residents and remain responsive to prevailing socio-economic conditions.
| Item Type: | Thesis (Undergraduate) | ||||||||
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| Subjects: | H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory H Social Sciences > HC Economics |
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| Divisions: | Faculty of Economic and Business > Departement of Economics | ||||||||
| Depositing User: | diyana mila hafsari | ||||||||
| Date Deposited: | 29 Aug 2025 07:19 | ||||||||
| Last Modified: | 29 Aug 2025 07:19 | ||||||||
| URI: | https://repository.upnjatim.ac.id/id/eprint/41887 |
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