Respons Neraca Perdagangan Indonesia - BRICS Terhadap Shock Covid-19

Permana, Yoga (2025) Respons Neraca Perdagangan Indonesia - BRICS Terhadap Shock Covid-19. Undergraduate thesis, UPN Veteran Jawa Timur.

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Abstract

The Covid-19 pandemic has caused a major shock to the global trading system, including trade relations between Indonesia and BRICS. The Indonesia-BRICS trade balance tends to be in deficit and has been further exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic shock, as imports have been higher than exports. This study aims to examine the response of the Indonesia-BRICS trade balance to the COVID-19 pandemic shock and to analyze the responses of exports, imports, and exchange rates to the COVID-19 pandemic shock. The study was conducted using data from 2004 to 2023, covering the Harmonized System (HS) from 01 to 99 and grouped into eight product clusters. The study adopted the Panel Bayesian Vector Autoregression (PBVAR) method to capture the dynamics of inter-variable relationships simultaneously and account for parameter uncertainty. The results indicate that Indonesia's trade balance with BRICS responded negatively to the COVID-19 pandemic, reflecting a significant impact on the stability of foreign trade. Exports responded negatively, especially in the early stages of the pandemic, while imports showed a positive response at the beginning before tending to decline. The exchange rate responded positively, indicating a weakening of the rupiah against BRICS currencies. These findings confirm that global shocks such as pandemics play a significant role in altering Indonesia's trade structure. Keywords: Trade Balance, BRICS, Covid-19, PBVAR

Item Type:	Thesis (Undergraduate)
Contributors:	Contribution Contributors NIDN/NIDK Email Thesis advisor Wijaya, Riko Setya NIDN0005018008 setyawijaya.ep@upnjatim.ac.id Thesis advisor Perdana, Putra 0013069006 putra.perdana.ep@upnjatim.ac.id
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory
Divisions:	Faculty of Economic and Business > Departement of Economics
Depositing User:	Yoga Permana
Date Deposited:	12 Aug 2025 04:21
Last Modified:	12 Aug 2025 04:21
URI:	https://repository.upnjatim.ac.id/id/eprint/41641

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