Khoiroh, Laila Alfi (2025) Peramalan Harga Bawang Merah dan Analisis Faktor-Faktor Yang Mempengaruhi Harga Bawang Merah di Provinsi Jawa Timur. Undergraduate thesis, UPN Veteran Jawa Timur.
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Abstract
Shallots are seasonal crops that have the potential to experience price fluctuations due to unstable availability, leading to volatile prices—particularly at the consumer level—and causing significant impacts for both farmers and consumers. This study aims to analyze the fluctuation and forecasting of shallot prices, as well as examine the factors influencing shallot prices in East Java Province. The data used in this research are secondary time series data, including consumer-level shallot prices, producer-level prices, export volumes, production levels, rainfall amounts, and the occurrence of religious holidays. The first objective is analyzed using descriptive analysis, the second is examined using the SARIMA method, and the third is analyzed using multiple linear regression. The results of the study indicate that 1) Shallot prices in East Java Province from January 2018 to April 2025 show sharp and unstable upward fluctuations. 2) The forecast for shallot prices in East Java between 2025 and 2027 ranges from IDR 34,195 to IDR 49,376 per kilogram. The predicted average prices are volatile and indicate sharp fluctuations over the next 24 months. 3) Simultaneously, production, rainfall, producer-level prices, and religious holidays have a significant positive effect on shallot prices. In contrast, exports do not have a significant influence on shallot prices. Keywords: shallot price, fluctuation, forecasting.
| Item Type: | Thesis (Undergraduate) | ||||||||||||
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| Subjects: | S Agriculture > S Agriculture (General) | ||||||||||||
| Divisions: | Faculty of Agriculture > Departement of Agribusiness | ||||||||||||
| Depositing User: | Laila Alfi Khoiroh | ||||||||||||
| Date Deposited: | 29 Jul 2025 05:21 | ||||||||||||
| Last Modified: | 29 Jul 2025 05:21 | ||||||||||||
| URI: | https://repository.upnjatim.ac.id/id/eprint/41225 |
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