Prediksi Persediaan Bahan Baku Dengan Pendekatan Metode SARIMA dan Prophet di Kepiting Kretegg

Sanyoko, Carisca Rizky (2025) Prediksi Persediaan Bahan Baku Dengan Pendekatan Metode SARIMA dan Prophet di Kepiting Kretegg. Undergraduate thesis, UPN Veteran Jawa Timur.

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Abstract

Uncertainty in customer demand can cause excess or shortage of raw material supply at Kretegg Crab. Excess supply risks causing storage in the freezer, especially for raw materials such as crab whose texture can change after being frozen, thus affecting quality and financial smoothness. Based on the percentage of demand in April 2025, there are raw materials that have a demand percentage of 0%, so raw material predictions are made at the three highest ranks in demand, namely crab, green mussels, blood cockles, and tofu cockles. In this study, an analysis of the prediction error rate of the SARIMA and Prophet methods was carried out. The prediction error rate test uses RMSE and MAE, where the selection of the method is based on the lowest error rate. The results show that the SARIMA method is better than the Prophet for all types of raw materials. The best parameters for each raw material are crab with parameters (2,1,10)(0,1,2)[12], green mussels with parameters (1,0,4)(1,0,2)[12], blood cockles with parameters (1,0,4)(0,0,2)[12], and tofu cockles with parameters (2,0,1)(0,0,2)[12].

Item Type:

Thesis (Undergraduate)

Contributors:

Contribution	Contributors	NIDN/NIDK	Email
Thesis advisor	Hadiwiyanti, Rizka	NIDN0727078602	rizkahadiwiyanti.si@upnjatim.ac.id
Thesis advisor	Wati, Seftin Fitri Ana	NIDN0020039104	seftin.fitri.si@upnjatim.ac.id

Subjects:

T Technology > T Technology (General)

Divisions:

Faculty of Computer Science > Departemen of Information Systems

Depositing User:

Carisca Rizky Sanyoko

Date Deposited:

20 Jun 2025 08:39

Last Modified:

20 Jun 2025 08:39

URI:

https://repository.upnjatim.ac.id/id/eprint/38757