Ramadani, Nurmalita Fitri (2025) Prediksi Penyaluran Obat Kandungan Misoprostol dengan Metode Temporal Convolutional Networks. Undergraduate thesis, Universitas Pembangunan Nasional Veteran Jawa Timur.
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Abstract
Illegal abortion remains a serious issue in Indonesia, particularly due to the widespread misuse and illegal distribution of misoprostol. The country records approximately 1.7 million abortion cases annually, with 42.5 out of every 1,000 women of reproductive age in Java engaged in such practices. Case reports indicate that misuse of misoprostol can lead to severe complications such as hyperthermia, hypoxia, and even death due to multiple organ failure. Additionally, 73% of abortion pills sold online are found to contain misoprostol, and over 300,000 illegal drug-selling websites have been blocked by the Ministry of Communication and Information. One regulatory gap contributing to this misuse is the lack of a clear policy limiting the distribution quantity of such drugs. This study implements a Temporal Convolutional Networks (TCN) model to forecast misoprostol distribution patterns using primary data from BPOM for the 2021 2024 period. Evaluation results show that the optimal parameter configurations were achieved for each PBF, with the lowest NMAE of 0.1049 for Merapi Utama Pharma and 0.1154 for Parit Padang Global, and NMSE values of 0.1555 and 0.1889, respectively. The model also identified 14 and 22 forecast points exceeding the control limits, indicating potential anomalies in distribution. This TCN-based approach is expected to support regulatory authorities in enhancing monitoring efforts and strengthening policies to prevent the misuse of misoprostol.
| Item Type: | Thesis (Undergraduate) | ||||||||||||
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| Subjects: | H Social Sciences > HD Industries. Land use. Labor > HD38.5 Supply Chain Management H Social Sciences > HG Finance > HG1709 Data processing Q Science > QA Mathematics > QA76.87 Neural computers R Medicine > RA Public aspects of medicine > RA1001 Forensic Medicine. Medical jurisprudence. Legal medicine |
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| Depositing User: | Nurmalita Fitri Ramadani | ||||||||||||
| Date Deposited: | 20 Jun 2025 02:36 | ||||||||||||
| Last Modified: | 20 Jun 2025 02:36 | ||||||||||||
| URI: | https://repository.upnjatim.ac.id/id/eprint/38612 |
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