Kristananda, Raja Valentino and Hidayat, Fadhilah Nur (2025) Analisis Model Forecasting Nilai Temuan Pemeriksaan Badan Pemeriksa Keuangan Perwakilan Provinsi Jawa Timur Pada Entitas Provinsi Jawa Timur Tahun 2018-2022 Menggunakan Metode Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM) Untuk Prediksi Tahun 2023-2024. Project Report (Praktek Kerja Lapang). Universitas Pembangunan Nasional Veteran Jawa Timur.
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Abstract
The existence of a process of growth and development in a region indicates that the region is trying to achieve prosperity, one of the indicators to see the success of economic growth and development of a region can be seen from the Value of Audit Findings. The value of examination findings reflects the total value in the Audit Report which evaluates the financial and operational aspects of the province issued by the Badan Pemeriksa Keuangan (BPK) Representative of East Java Province. It is a vital indicator in measuring the performance and transparency of public financial management in East Java Province. The main objective of the research is to measure the accuracy and reliability of the Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM) method in predicting the value of examination findings, as well as identifying potential fluctuations and risk factors that affect the accuracy of future predictions. The Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM) method is used as a methodological basis for estimating risks related to the value of audit findings issued by the Badan Pemeriksa Keuangan (BPK) Representative of East Java Province, with the hope that the results of the analysis can improve transparency and accountability in public financial management in East Java Province. This research produces output in the form of a visualisation of the prediction of the value of audit findings based on the GBM model, which shows the expected increase in the value of audit findings until 2024. The analysis results show variations in Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) that vary in certain periods. There are periods with high MAPE, indicating a significant difference between actual values and model predictions. On the other hand, there are periods where the model predictions appear less accurate. Overall, the GBM method provides high accuracy with a MAPE of 3.74%. This indicates that the model has a good ability to estimate trends and movements in the value of examination findings based on the available historical data. This research provides important insights into the reliability of the Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM) method in predicting the value of audit findings, which can serve as a foundation for planning and decision-making related to the public financial governance of East Java Province.
| Item Type: | Monograph (Project Report (Praktek Kerja Lapang)) | ||||||||||||
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| Contributors: |
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| Subjects: | H Social Sciences > HA Statistics Q Science > QA Mathematics Q Science > QA Mathematics > QA76.6 Computer Programming |
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| Divisions: | Faculty of Computer Science > Departemen of Data Science | ||||||||||||
| Depositing User: | Raja Valentino Kristananda | ||||||||||||
| Date Deposited: | 20 Jun 2025 02:27 | ||||||||||||
| Last Modified: | 20 Jun 2025 02:27 | ||||||||||||
| URI: | https://repository.upnjatim.ac.id/id/eprint/38571 |
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