Model Vector Autoregressive-Support Vector Regression (VAR-SVR) dengan GUI untuk Prediksi Indeks Harga Konsumen, Harga Beras dan Inflasi Kota Surabaya

Elyana Suprapto, Rheinka (2025) Model Vector Autoregressive-Support Vector Regression (VAR-SVR) dengan GUI untuk Prediksi Indeks Harga Konsumen, Harga Beras dan Inflasi Kota Surabaya. Undergraduate thesis, UPN Veteran Jawa Timur.

	Text (Cover) Cover.pdf Download (1MB)
	Text (BAB I) BAB I.pdf Download (44kB)
	Text (BAB II) BAB II.pdf Restricted to Repository staff only until 27 May 2027. Download (433kB)
	Text (BAB III) BAB III.pdf Restricted to Repository staff only until 27 May 2027. Download (125kB)
	Text (BAB IV) BAB IV_compressed.pdf Restricted to Repository staff only until 27 May 2027. Download (720kB)
	Text (BAB V) BAB V.pdf Download (16kB)
	Text (Dafpus) DAFPUS_compressed.pdf Download (92kB)
	Text (Lampiran) LAMPIRAN_compressed.pdf Restricted to Repository staff only Download (256kB)

Abstract

The current state of the global economy is considered worrying because major economies are facing serious challenges, such as the weakening labor market in the US and the Russia-Ukraine conflict in Europe. Fluctuations in the global economy and global conflicts affect the Indonesian economy. Because in recent years Indonesia's economic growth has often experienced a decline. Economic growth in big cities, one of which is Surabaya, which is often a contributor to the Indonesian economy a large share of the Indonesian economy. With a dense population and a large area, inflation is one of the problems that the government focuses on government. Because inflation will have an impact on the increasing number of unemployment, a decrease in people's purchasing power, and the weakening of the rupiah which causes all kinds of food prices to increase causing all kinds of food prices to rise. Thus, factors affected by inflation are the CPI and rice price. Therefore, a quantitative analysis model is needed to predict the future value of inflation as a basis for risk management of the impact of inflation. Thus, in this study, a VAR-SVR combination model which is a time series analysis model and a model that can identify non-linear data that cannot be captured by the VAR- SVR model can identify non-linear data that cannot be captured by the VAR model. The results of the study found that the best VAR model is the VAR(5,1) model. VAR(5,1) and the model is continued for VAR-SVR so that the final results of the evaluation are obtained MAPE inflation of 56.36%, CPI of 0.81%, and rice price of 5.22%

Item Type:

Thesis (Undergraduate)

Contributors:

Contribution	Contributors	NIDN/NIDK	Email
Thesis advisor	Trimono, Trimono	NIDN0008099501	trimono.stat@upnjatim.ac.id
Thesis advisor	Terza Damaliana, Aviolla	NIDN0002089402	aviolla.terza.sada@upnjatim.ac.id

Subjects:

H Social Sciences > HC Economics
T Technology > TX Home economics

Divisions:

Faculty of Computer Science > Departemen of Data Science

Depositing User:

Rheinka Elyana Suprapto

Date Deposited:

27 May 2025 07:05

Last Modified:

27 May 2025 07:05

URI:

https://repository.upnjatim.ac.id/id/eprint/36567