OPTIMASI PERAMALAN JUMLAH PENUMPANG DENGAN MODEL HIBRIDA SARIMAX-PROPHET: STUDI KASUS DI PT KERETA API INDONESIA DAERAH OPERASIONAL 8

Isworo, Muhamad Raihan Ramadhani (2025) OPTIMASI PERAMALAN JUMLAH PENUMPANG DENGAN MODEL HIBRIDA SARIMAX-PROPHET: STUDI KASUS DI PT KERETA API INDONESIA DAERAH OPERASIONAL 8. Undergraduate thesis, UPN Veteran Jawa Timur.

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Abstract

Forecasting the number of train passengers is an important element in the operational planning of PT Kereta Api PT (PT KAI), especially in Operational Area 8 (DAOP 8). This study developed a hybrid model that combines SARIMAX (Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average with Exogenous Variables) and Prophet to improve forecasting accuracy. The SARIMAX model captures seasonal patterns and linear trends, while Prophet excels at handling holiday effects and trend changes. The results showed that the hybrid model with the optimal weight combination (SARIMAX: 0.5, Prophet: 0.5) provided a significant improvement in performance with a MAPE value of 4.34%, better than the individual models of SARIMAX (7.72%) and Prophet (6.06%). This model shows advantages in unique scenarios such as peak season (Eid and Christmas) and national holidays. In addition, this study provides a framework for evaluating multi-horizon performance and parameter sensitivity analysis. The implementation of this hybrid model can improve PT KAI’s operational efficiency and capacity planning and has the potential to be applied to other operational areas.

Item Type:

Thesis (Undergraduate)

Contributors:

Contribution	Contributors	NIDN/NIDK	Email
Thesis advisor	Anggraeny, Fetty Tri	NIDN198202112021212005	fettyanggraeny.if@upnjatim.ac.id
Thesis advisor	Junaidi, Achmad	NIDN0710117803	achmadjunaidi.if@upnjatim.ac.id

Subjects:

T Technology > T Technology (General)

Divisions:

Faculty of Computer Science > Departemen of Informatics

Depositing User:

Muhamad Raihan Ramadhani Isworo

Date Deposited:

26 May 2025 03:49

Last Modified:

26 May 2025 03:49

URI:

https://repository.upnjatim.ac.id/id/eprint/36509