Rimadhani, Tri Diana (2023) Peramalan Jumlah Penderita Jenis Penyakit Utama di Kota Surabaya Menggunakan Metode Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA). Undergraduate thesis, UPN Veteran Jawa Timur.
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Abstract
The increase and decrease in the number of disease cases faced by Surabaya can affect imbalances in the availability of medicines/vaccines and services to patients. By using the 17 types of discovered diseases, the number of cases in the next few months of each type of disease will be predicted. It is expected to be able to contribute to the Surabaya Health Office in making decisions for disease management in the Surabaya. The used method to build up a forecasting model is the ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) forecasting method. By using the Python programming language, the data is being analyzed so that a suitable forecasting model can be built. Based on observations, the results of the analysis found that quantitative calculation models are needed to predict what will happen in the future by analyzing data from the past. So that predictive data can be used to improve disease prevention and control. After the forecasting model has been built, the ARIMA model was produced with almost all of data have a model that is quite good and quite feasible to be used for forecasting based on the MAPE evaluation value which shows a number in the range of 10% to 20%. Meanwhile, the evaluation of the RMSE value shows a fairly high error value. In addition, a website-based dashboard is built that aims to visualize the results of the forecasting analysis process.
| Item Type: | Thesis (Undergraduate) | ||||||||||||
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| Subjects: | Q Science > Q Science (General) Q Science > QA Mathematics > QA75 Electronic computers. Computer science T Technology > T Technology (General) T Technology > T Technology (General) > T58.6-58.62 Management Information Systems |
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| Divisions: | Faculty of Computer Science > Departemen of Information Systems | ||||||||||||
| Depositing User: | Tri Diana Rimadhani | ||||||||||||
| Date Deposited: | 10 Jan 2024 06:53 | ||||||||||||
| Last Modified: | 10 Jan 2024 06:53 | ||||||||||||
| URI: | http://repository.upnjatim.ac.id/id/eprint/19467 |
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